Coming Q1 2026 — These are planned strategies. Final offerings may vary.
Strategy Overview Vaults execute systematic trading strategies across prediction markets. Each strategy has a defined approach, risk profile, and target returns.
The Arbitrageur
Cross-Platform Arbitrage Risk : Low | Target APY : 10-15%
Strategy Captures price differences between platforms by simultaneously buying on the cheaper venue and selling on the more expensive one.
How It Works 1. Identify matched market with spread > 2% 2. Buy YES on Platform A @ 52¢ 3. Sell YES on Platform B @ 55¢ 4. Lock in 3¢ profit per share 5. Repeat across all matched markets Characteristics Metric Value Trade Frequency High (50-100/day) Position Duration Minutes to hours Max Position Size 5% of vault Stop Loss N/A (market-neutral)
Risk Factors
Execution risk if prices move during trade
Settlement timing differences
Platform access restrictions
The Contrarian
Mean Reversion Risk : Medium | Target APY : 15-25%
Strategy “Nothing ever happens” — bets against extreme price movements, expecting reversion to the mean.
How It Works 1. Monitor markets for extreme prices (>85% or <15%) 2. Bet against the extreme (buy NO when YES is >85%) 3. Wait for prices to normalize 4. Exit when price returns to fair value Example Market: "Aliens land on Earth in 2024" YES price spikes to 90¢ on viral video Contrarian vault: - Buys NO at 10¢ - Video debunked, price drops - Sells NO at 50¢ - 400% return on position Characteristics Metric Value Trade Frequency Low (5-10/day) Position Duration Hours to days Max Position Size 10% of vault Stop Loss 20% from entry
Risk Factors
Black swan events (rare but extreme moves)
Timing risk (position can move against you before reverting)
The Momentum Rider
Trend Following Risk : Medium-High | Target APY : 20-35%
Strategy Follows price momentum, buying markets that are trending up and selling those trending down.
How It Works 1. Calculate momentum scores for all markets 2. Enter long positions in top momentum markets 3. Enter short positions in bottom momentum markets 4. Rebalance weekly based on updated scores Momentum Score momentum = ( price_now - price_7d_ago ) / price_7d_ago × volume_weight × time_decay // Positive score = bullish momentum // Negative score = bearish momentum Characteristics Metric Value Trade Frequency Medium (weekly rebalance) Position Duration Days to weeks Max Position Size 15% of vault Stop Loss 15% from entry
Risk Factors
Trend reversals
False breakouts
High turnover costs
Election Cycles
Political Market Specialist Risk : High | Target APY : 25-50%
Strategy Systematic trading of political markets based on polling, sentiment, and historical patterns.
How It Works 1. Aggregate polling data from multiple sources 2. Calculate polling average with recency weighting 3. Compare to market prices 4. Trade when market diverges >5% from polling average 5. Adjust for "shy voter" and turnout effects Example Polling average: Trump 48% Market price: Trump 43¢ Strategy: - Buy Trump YES at 43¢ - Target exit at 48¢ - Potential return: 11.6% Characteristics Metric Value Trade Frequency Medium (2-5/day during election season) Position Duration Days to months Max Position Size 20% of vault Stop Loss 25% from entry
Risk Factors
Polling errors
October surprises
Concentrated risk in election markets
The News Trader
Event-Driven Trading Risk : High | Target APY : 30-60%
Strategy Trades rapidly on breaking news using NLP to parse headlines and react faster than humans.
How It Works 1. Monitor news feeds (Reuters, Bloomberg, Twitter) 2. NLP model extracts market-relevant signals 3. Map signals to prediction markets 4. Execute trades within seconds of news 5. Exit on price normalization Signal Types Signal Example Action Positive for outcome ”CEO announces expansion” Buy YES Negative for outcome ”Scandal breaks” Buy NO Uncertainty increase ”Investigation announced” Wait
Characteristics Metric Value Trade Frequency Variable (news-dependent) Position Duration Minutes to hours Max Position Size 5% of vault Stop Loss 10% from entry
Risk Factors
False news/rumors
Delayed execution
Crowded trades
Strategy Comparison Strategy Risk Target APY Sharpe Max DD Arbitrageur Low 10-15% 2.5 5% Contrarian Medium 15-25% 1.5 15% Momentum Medium-High 20-35% 1.2 25% Elections High 25-50% 1.0 35% News Trader High 30-60% 0.8 40%
Sharpe Ratio : Risk-adjusted return measure. Higher is better. Max DD :
Maximum drawdown—largest peak-to-trough decline.
Building Your Portfolio Combine strategies for diversification:
Conservative
Balanced
Aggressive
60% Arbitrageur 30% Contrarian 10% Momentum Expected APY: 12-18% Max Drawdown: 10% Next Steps 